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Israel’s economy – limping or striding towards yet another election?

1 January 2020
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Categories: Afternoon Tea in Jerusalem, Blog, Business, Israel, Jerusalem

Israel’s third general election within 12 months will take place on March 2nd. Everyone knows that political uncertainty is rarely good for a sophisticated economy. So how has the country managed to ride this wave of political intrigue?

It would seem that the Israeli economy grew at a rate of 3.3% in 2019, pretty good compared to other countries. And as for trade, at a time when China and the USA are threatening global instability: –

Figures for Israel’s trade and capital flow show an increase in the surplus, which supports further strengthening of the shekel against foreign currencies. Israel had a $9.8 billion trade surplus in 2019, compared with a $4 billion surplus in 2018. The balance of payments current account had a $14.8 billion surplus in 2019, compared with a $9.5 billion surplus in 2018.

Incoming tourism increased yet again in 2019, this time by 10%. Start ups raised a record US$350 million in December 2019 alone. And global companies like Tesla continue to set up offices in the Holy Land.

So where is the proverbial “but”?

Let’s look at those start ups. “5,313 new startups were founded in Israel between 2011 and 2018, but 2,387, or 45%, closed or froze their operations by 2018. In total, 4,363 startup companies were active in Israel in 2018, a 6% drop from 2017”. Hmmm.

Now let’s consider the budget deficit, which the government has sworn blindly for over a year is under control. The gap has already mushroomed to nearly 4.0% of GDP, way above all targets. New taxation is almost a given, when a government if eventually formed in the early summer.

And this budgetary hole is rarely a good sign, just when unemployment rates are beginning to turn upwards, admittedly from a low figure of less than 4%. In other words, the glory of numbers showing a strong economy is really not that genuine.

Roughly 18 months ago, the then governor of the Bank of Israel, Carmit Flug, took the hint and decided not to seek re-election. She had advocated that the fiscal policy of the Minister of Finance was irresponsible. She bitterly opposed the moves to reduce taxes. However, she was to lose the battle.

Is it any wonder that the head of Israel’s Tax Authority is currently looking for ways to raise taxes? First up on the list is the imposition of VAT on fruit and vegetables, a direct hit on the poorer sections of society. However, this decision will not be made until after March 2nd, thus protecting the government’s core base voting community.

Hmmm.

362 reasons why Israel is called The ‘Start Up Nation’

30 December 2019
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Categories: Afternoon Tea in Jerusalem, Blog, Business, Israel

Israel is known as a ‘start up nation’, the high-tech powerhouse of the Middle East. It has 20 unicorns, only beaten by China, USA and the UK.

A new research report detailed just how far Israel has come in three decades in encouraging overseas investors to trust what was once a bankrupt and insular economy – whose best export was the Jaffa orange.

The key number is 362 – 362 multinationals are active in the Holy Land. “Intel is the most active corporation in Israel (2014–2019): Intel Capital has participated in 52 investment deals; Intel corp. acquired 5 companies totaling $17.5B.” Google and Microsoft have purchased ten and eight businesses respectively.

And the growth rate continues. “51 Multinational Corporations opened new R&D activity in Israel between 2017 and 2019.” The three top technology clusters in MNCs in Israel are: Machine Vision, IoT and Cyber Security.

What is this worth to the Israeli economy?

  • Hightech employs about 15% of the workforce. The largest number of employees is in a manufacturing facility (Intel Fab in Kiryat-Gat) and not an R&D center. Interestingly, no other High-Tech facility in Israel comes close to this scale, other than the Intel R&D center.
  • Israeli based MNCs are about to pay nearly $8.85 billion in 2019.
  • This amount is equivalent to approximately 2.6% of Israel’s estimated GDP for 2019 (in fixed prices, assuming 3.1% GDP growth this year), and 18% of the total income from direct tax, which is expected to be $48 billion this year.
  • The median tax payment per MNC is expected to be $7.125m in 2019.

The report from the IVC et al makes for fascinating reading. You can see what your country can learn from this innovative approach to building an economy from scratch.

One shocking obvious fail that so many forget when it comes to customer service

28 December 2019
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Categories: Blog, Business

The customer is always right. Rule numero uno that we are all taught as kids. So ,why, when we are grown ups and trying to make a quick buck, do we immediately and conveniently forget this convention?

Have a look at these case studies: I have just finished some travelling. Loads of Airbnb’s and other places.

Location number one: Centre of the city. Small but compact. Adequate. Fair enough. However:

  • I had to haul my suitcases an extra 10 minutes to get the key.
  • The internet was so bad that I had to go to a café. Responses to the complaint were slow.
  • The towels were as thin as the toilet paper.

Well, I they got their money, but no recommendation.

Location number two, described as “luxurious”.

  • The internet did not work at first, because….. the receiver was hidden, unplugged, in a cupboard.
  • 3 bedrooms, each with a cupboard, and none with hanging space for clothes
  • Large, but with only 2 chairs, one of which broke. Yeah, the beds were large and comfortable.

And yes, at a third place, the owner, Mr Brendan Blott, personally met us and graciously showed us around. It was a pleasure to stay there. Most important, there was some fresh milk available for a cup of coffee.

The previous week, I had been in Hong Kong. Ask anyone for help there and they answer you……. with a smile. It is a 5-lettered word that costs us nothing. For all the troubles of the teritory, I want to go back there. Similarly, I will hopefully have another opportunity to avail myself of the services of Mr. Blott.

So, the question is why do so many of us brush off customers? They are not always right, but they deserve our respect and help. Time for you to rethink?

 

How much will a 3rd general election cost Israel?

16 December 2019
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Categories: Afternoon Tea in Jerusalem, Blog, Business, Israel, Jerusalem

Israel is to hold its third general election within 12 months in March 2020. Does this political impasse have an significant impact on the economy?

Remember: Israel has always had a coalition government. Yet somehow, parties have found a way to come together. This time, there is a secondary elephant in the room – the investigations into corruption surrounding the Prime Minister and now his indictment on three separate accounts. Benjamin Netanyahu has made no secret that his best line of defense lies in clinging to power.

Thus, the political impasse did not start on the day of the first general election this Spring. It began in the run up to that vote, commencing in the Autumn of 2018. And it is likely to continue through to the early summer of 2020, as the vested parties will seek to outmaneuver each other in the expected coalition talks.

In other words, we are talking of an almost two year period, when the economy (and other policy issues) have received no central direction!

Does this really matter? After all, the economy is holding up.

Against all that cheer, there is a very worrying undercurrent. As one journalist calculated:

The price tag for the next election is NIS 3.8 billion and the cumulative cost for all three national ballots is an estimated NIS 10 billion – enough to raise old-age stipends for one million pensioners in need.

Meaningless assumptions? One leading national charity has stated that:

Government policy tools directed at the issue are generally limited and insufficient to diminish the problem substantially, to which has been added stagnation in government and political instability because of the two elections a short time apart in 2019, leading to the loss of an entire year in the ability to deal with prevention and reduction of poverty and rescue from it.

It is known that:

  1. The national deficit is growing, as the government has no mandate to lower spending nor to raise taxes.
  2. New opportunities to attract overseas investors are going begging, as they require government approval.
  3. I was told by one pensioner that his drugs and tablets are in short supply, and he has heard of other cases.
  4. Specific stipends, such as for soldiers without parents, have run out of money.
  5. Start ups, relying on government funding, have been laying off workers, as there has been ‘no legal process’ to grant the transfer of funds.
  6. And………….

In other words, at the micro level, the immaturity of Israel’s politicians is beginning to hurt. But who cares?

The political uncertainty only impacts on the electorate but not those who consider themselves wise enough to make the laws.

 

BibiGate and Israel’s economy – who wins?

26 November 2019
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Categories: Afternoon Tea in Jerusalem, Blog, Business, Israel

For over two years, Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, often called Bibi, has been investigated first by the police, who then passed on their recommendations on to the Attorney-General. Both teams were led by Bibi appointees. Both believe that Bibi has to answer charges in court on three separate accounts, involving bribery and breach of trust.

Bibi denies it all. And he realises that his best line of defense requires him to hang on to power. In a country where governments are always dependent on fragile coalitions, this has resulted in two inconclusive general elections within six months. Further, as the political stalemate continues, another walk to the polls looks likely in March 2020.

Where does that leave the economy? Ostensibly, not too bad. For example, “Moody’s senior credit officer Evan Wohlmann believes that Israel’s economic growth has outpaced most other advanced industrial countries over the past decade.” The credit rating remains at A1.

In parallel, FDI is strong. Unemployment is low at just under 4%. UK’s Pret A Manger restaurant chain is looking to enter the Holy Land. So, all-in-all, not a bad report, you might think.

Look again, much deeper.

GDP growth for Q319 may have clocked 4.1%, but this was based on one item. There was a freak one-off huge rise in car imports. Even worse is the fact that the greatest growth generator of the Israeli economy is also the main obstacle of economic growth—the endless traffic jams that decimate millions of work hours for the Israeli workforce.

How the Bank of Israel will react to these unreliable figures is to be determined. Israel’s top monetary experts must be worried by the fact that this year’s budget was cobbled together at the last moment. There is a clear gap in public spending programme. Further, there is no way that a budget for 2020 has been prepared, and there is no clear thinking how it could even be passed in the near future. That is a bright red warning light for the international financial markets.

Even that stunning unemployment stat is clouded with uncertainty.

Despite the record low in unemployment, the state of the labor market in Israel is not clear cut. The number of available jobs in Israel has been declining in recent months, a figure likely to indicate a slowdown in the expansion of economic activity.

What next? Bibi has always proclaimed his innocence and is determined to stay where he is. He still controls his political party, the Likud, just. So long as that plank of support is in place, the country remains paralysed.

As either Minister of Finance or Prime Minister, firend and foe will agree that Bibi can be credited for much much of the success of Israel’s healthy economic performance since 2001.

As we close off 2019, the economy will continue to plod along due to its own core strengths – the high tech sector, innovation, export sales to new markets, etc. However, that drive cannot remain in high gear for ever. When that slowdown eventuates, regardless of their political persuasion and ethnic background, the electorate will begin to ‘feel it’, which could determine how people will vote next time. Ironic?

 

 

 

Should a freelancer open an office?

15 November 2019
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Categories: Afternoon Tea in Jerusalem, Blog, Business, Israel, Jerusalem

I was listening to a wickedly funny yet pertinent and amazing post yesterday from Geoff Burch.  To cut to the chase, he asks why there are so many cold callers annoying people in their homes with set scripts that are usually irrelevant, if not insulting.

Hold that thought, and link it to a blog written by executive business coach and mentor, Tim Jackson. He ponders why most of us are so prone to distractions. As he bluntly puts it, it is our own responsibility to identify those issues and remove them, pronto.

I have lost track of how many people over the years have asked me if they should open an office or continue working from home. After all, it can cost a lot of money to fit out additional premises and pay the rent. Well, no argument there.

Maybe there is a deeper, hidden concern. If you take up on extra facilities, your are going to have to be more responsible for your work. You will be forced to go out and find extra clients in order to pay off the extra (“and wasteful”?) expenses. Hmmm!

Personally, it took me ages to come to a decision that I needed an office. I was getting by. I had learnt to deal with the distractions – most of them – in the home environment. I could meet people in quiet – or semi quiet – at coffee shops.

I then dilly-dallied, as I struggled to find the right area of Jerusalem to set up shop. Far too slowly, I realised that the all neighbourhoods had lousy parking and lousy traffic problems. Comparison was not easy. So, I chose the industrial park closest to where I lived.

And today?

Since moving, and also after getting used to the change, my productivity has increased by 10s of percentage points. It is difficult to pin point precisely why or how. However, I know of other freelancers who have had similar results.

The point is as follows. Before moving, the trader is so rooted in how much extra the change will cost them that they minimize the potential benefits. And yes, those costs are important to understand. Far more vital is the uplift. We forget that we are seeking to become more professional, and that is how others will see us. And that should result in lots of lovely extra revenue, way above the additional expenses.

So what was your original question?

Is it possible to grow a business exponentially?

22 October 2019
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Categories: Afternoon Tea in Jerusalem, Blog, Business, Israel

A few weeks ago, I wrote about how and when to change your business model. However, as good Israelis, many of my clients are impatient. They ask me how they can grow their enterprise, and do so quickly.

So, my skills as a business coach and mentor are thus challenged, big time.

Samuel Medly posted a fascinating piece on five corporate trends to watch out for in 2019. The first item refers to “Quantum Innovation”.

Quantum innovation is the name given to the kind of innovation characterized by bold and creative thinking designed to take an enterprise into a lucrative new paradigm – even if that means going beyond the bounds of the existing business model……

Companies should work towards a goal 10x greater than what they believe they can achieve, working from first principles and uncertain profiles, while emphasising speed and experimentation.

Even applying that to thought to my own set up is fascinating and fun. So why shouldn’t you follow suit also?

So I would like to combine Medley’s offering with the words of Dr. Robert Brooks, who posed the question: “What is the number one habit of self-made millionaires?” Spoiler alert – the answer revolves around the ability to ‘forge relationships’.

But how do you do that?

And this is where Brooks details ten core characteristics that are essential for success. Along with hard work and good ethics, these include gratitude, openness to feedback and an ability to encourage attitude. In other words, a good leader needs to be resilient.

Where does that leave you, the owner of your business? Clearly, quick and innovative thinking is required to move ahead. And addition, you need to take on board some personal abilities, which will help you to navigate through the changes. The two concepts are very much linked.

 

 

 

Customer service; Isn’t obvious what to do?

15 October 2019
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Categories: Afternoon Tea in Jerusalem, Blog, Business, Israel, Jerusalem

A post on LinkedIn from Geoff Burch referred to an a car repair job. Seemingly because he is a TV personality, the service was not insured. To summarise Burch’s thoughts, so much for customer care. After all, “happy customers make money”. (HCMM)

It reminded me of the time 30 years ago, when I had to go to the head Peugeot dealership in Jerusalem. They were incredibly rude. I complained to head office in France. The guys in Jerusalem were forced to apologise, but asked why I had not tried to resolve the issue locally in the first place. Er, um…. Meanwhile, I have not bought Peugeot again. Remember HCMM.

Have times changed? Last week, I ordered a new mobile phone via a website. I compared prices, delivery schedules etc between shops and decided on the retail chain called GoMobile.

Shortly afterwards, a rep of GoMobile called me up. “We just want to verify some details”. Oh yes, I think to myself. You know that it’s a trap, because he did not verify the model. Bottom line: The kit did not come with an original Samsung charger, but another make. If I am prepared to part with a small fortune, I can receive that and an extra year’s guarantee.

What the…? Why can’t they just put it in the package in the first place? Why the deception, from my perspective? To be fair, as was pointed out to me, this issue was clearly written on the website. But who takes in all the info, dotted all over the screen?

The rep was insistent and would not take no for an answer. So rather than trying to interrupt him, I let the guy waffle away. Finally, I was able to say no. I then told him that I would honour my order, but I think GoMobile is shooting itself in the foot. “What do you mean?” he asked.

“Because next time, I will not consider GoMobile as my first choice.” Suddenly, the rep was speechless. HCMM.

And if you think that is bad enough, try using Netvision as your e-mail server. That inbox receives about 30 spam entries a day from ladies suggesting various ‘services’. They all have the same content. However, Netvision will block this rubbish, if I just pay them around US$5 per month.

I have to ask myself: Why can’t Netvision just provide this service in an effort to provide excellent standards? Why are their customers subjected to this nonsense?

My three stories relate to incidents with Israeli services. However, I am sure that the world over is full of such incidents, daily.

When discussed as per above, it seems so obvious what suppliers should be doing. So why is it that so many fail? More importantly, what can you do to improve your service to your customers, right now?

Here’s what Israel’s economy and society are telling its politicians.

13 October 2019
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Categories: Afternoon Tea in Jerusalem, Blog, Business, Israel, Jerusalem

Israel held its second general election almost a month ago, and there is no sign of a government in formation.

Incumbent Prime Minister Netanyahu has a reputation of being a winner, usually. It seemed he had won back in April, only for one of his expected coalition partners (Yisrael Beiteinu) effectively to ditch him. Back to the electorate in September and he has actually ended up with a slightly worse set of cards to play with.

Today, he is a wounded race horse. The biggest evidence for this are those individuals, such as Gidon Sa’ar and Nir Barkat, in his own Likud party, who are beginning to announce that they are prepared to replace Netanyahu – of course, only if and when he resigns.

The same is true overseas. Assumedly one of his biggest fans, President Trump, has failed to do anything about recent Iranian aggression towards Saudi Arabia. Then last week, the Americans withdrew military protection from their Kurdish allies in northern Syria. Both items have sent shudders throughout the Israeli security services. (I remind you that one of Netanyahu’s key election posters included a photo of himself and his chum Trump, smiling together).

For good measure, Netanyahu’s supposedly close relations with President Putin are also being tested this weak. So far, Netanyahu’s words are having little impact.

Everyone knows that Netanyahu is facing legal accusations on at least three separate issues, involving bribery and the perverting of the course of justice. Many argue that the proverbial elephant in the room for both elections was Netanyahu’s desire to remain as Prime Minister for as long as possible. The law for removing a PM, if and when he has been formally charged, is unclear. It seems that technically he can stay where he is.

And what does this impasse mean for the average Israeli?

  1. The Bank of Israel has already issued a strong warning regarding the budget deficit, which has been out of control for nearly a year. Painful cuts are urged.
  2. The Bank of Israel has also reduced its estimates for economic growth in 2020 by a full half of one per cent to 3.0%.
  3. Reforms and incentives are held up. I have a client that wishes to apply for a government grant, which will help their company invest in new machinery. This will create employment and thus fulfill new export orders. The grant programme ran out a few months ago, and can only be extended when the Kenesset (Parliament) begins to work again. Meanwhile……
  4. Everyone accepts that the budget for the Ministry of Defense is large, relatively and absolutely. Including American support, it stands at 72.9 billion shekels (almost US$21 billion). Of this, 7.9 billion shekels (11%) is handed out in pensions. By way of comparison, the Ministry of Education is appropriated 6 billion shekels and the Ministry of Welfare 9.5 billion shekels annually. Disproportionate?
  5. As for the Ministry of Health, if you do not live in the key population centres, hospital services are simply poor. Pardon the pun, but I am sick and tired of seeing pictures of patients waiting in beds in hospital corridors. Unacceptable!

Aside from Netanyahu, there are at least three other politicians from the outgoing government awaiting for the Ministry of Justice to decide if they should be prosecuted. One of them includes the Minister of Health, Ya’akov Litzman, The Israeli political system is unwell, and most patients are demanding a new doctor be placed in charge.

Do I need to change my business model?

11 October 2019
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Categories: Afternoon Tea in Jerusalem, Blog, Business, Israel, Jerusalem

Two Israeli Unicorns and both leading viral content distribution companies, Taboola.com Ltd. and Outbrain Inc., have agreed to combine forces.

Taboola was founded in 2007, has 1,400 employees and has raised over US$160 in a decade. Outbrain: founded 2006, 800 workers, and has raised US$150. Having spent years snipping at each other, they are now seeking to combine forces to take on Google. All change.

But most companies are not that global. Whatever the financial headlines, business is dominated by SMEs – individuals or small groups of people struggling daily to hit their targets in their own local neighbourhoods.

I recently was called in to three such operations in the Jerusalem area.

The first one was a relatively simple affair. The owner wanted to sell. I was asked if he was making the correct decision. Given the state of his business, his private situation and the offers received, the answer was a clear yes.

The good news was that here was a person that was prepared to put aside all his established thought processes, look beyond the jungle of clashing thoughts, and realise what needed to be done. Mega kudos points.

In the second scenario, I appreciated that the founder needed help, but that they could not be told out right what to do. So, I created a time line as to what would or would not happen, depending on their actions, carefully choosing a specific date months in advance.

I cannot say that the process was smooth. The initial meetings were accompanied by much resistance and the old-fashioned weapon of choice, ‘procrastination’. However, three months into the battle and we have a clear path forward and a completely new face to the marketing strategy. Quite literally, it is as if the CEO has discsovered a new language, judging by the way they are talking.

In case study number three, the story is more complex. Shortage of space forces me to narrow down the bare facts. This is a person, who is so caring that they will do anything for anyone. And this is the constant excuse why they cannot help themselves, because others need their attention.

The business model, such as it is, is truly weak, Nothing will change that pattern until they are able to comprehend that the damage they incur on themselves will eventually impact on those that they love.

We are taught that change is often seen as a threat. As a business coach and mentor, almost every week I try to show CEOs how in fact change can be such a fun, if not invigorating, challenge. Otherwise, we end up like approximately 80% of the Fortune 500 companies from  about 50 years ago – they are no longer around.

 

 

A taste of Israeli innovation for the New Year

29 September 2019
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Categories: Afternoon Tea in Jerusalem, Blog, Business, Israel

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It is that time in the calendar, when Jews celebrate the New Year. In Israel, the population now totals just over 9 million people. At a macro level, the economy is plodding along very nicely at over 3 per cent annually, and that despite buffoons for politicians in Parliament and enemies in Iran and in Gaza that seek a violent destruction to the capital of Jerusalem.

Israel has developed a reputation for innovation and entrepreneurship in the past two or so decades. Chat technology, cherry tomatoes, electric and driverless cars, understanding the sonar language of whales and much more. Hightech, fintech, cleantech, AI , foodtech, and the list drags on.

But what if……..

Somewhere around 2012, imagine a few nearly-thirty year old types gathered around a bar, sipping a wee dram of whisky. And then suppose one says how it is a shame that Israel does not have its own distillery. And then another poses the question: ‘well, what if we set one up?”

And thus was born the concept of The Milk and Honey Distillery, now located in a most uninspiring area of south Tel Aviv. No luscious green mountains nor lochs, but the noise of major road works and urban redevelopment.

The founders and original investors brought in Dr Jim Swann, the go-to expert for setting up distilleries in humid climates. (Unfortunately, he passed away, before he could taste the success of his efforts.) They rescued a pot still, abandoned in central Europe. They launched a micro funding campaign. They opened a visitors centre, which has hosted over 18,000 guests and sold much gin in the gap years.

Whisky from the first cask was sold after three years of maturation. (For the record, 36 months in a cask in Israel is the equivalent to a much longer time than in Scotland).  This week, the Founders’ Edition was released at a stunning gala event in Tel Aviv. I did enjoy a small drop of a 62 percent sherry cask, just 20 months after being distilled.

The distillery is now experimenting by placing casks not just in mountainous areas, similarly to Scotland. They are utilising the costal plain and also the Dead Sea region, the lowest point in the world. Export orders to around a dozen countries have already been fulfilled.

It has been a pleasure to be one of the founding investors in the micro funding project. And I do look forward to opening my bottle this week. The distillery itself will be exhibiting around Europe over the next month.

And as for the Jewish New Year…..Well, it is a tradition to welcome it by dipping apple into honey. Need I say more!  Lechayim and Slainte!!

 

 

 

 

 

After the Israeli elections, the economy is how relevant?

25 September 2019
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Categories: Afternoon Tea in Jerusalem, Blog, Business, Israel

Israeli has survived two election campaigns in 2019 and still there is no end in sight and the formation of a stable government. Meanwhile, the economy seems to be surviving, almost in spite of everything.

True, unemployment has risen slightly. As ever, there has been a mild threat regarding the level of Israel’s international credit rating. And the governor of the Bank of Israel declared yesterday that:

The next government will face a significant challenge in the budget deficit and low productivity in the Israeli economy.

Exactly how much needs to be cut is up for debate. Estimates over the summer centred around 14 – 15 billion shekels – over US$3.5 billion.

So let’s just try to give that sum a little bit of perspective.

In Israel’s first government, just 16 ministers were appointed. By March 2019, that number had almost doubled to 31. Not everyone has a portfolio, but that is the price of having a secure coalition government.

Hmmm. We are told that the annual cost of a government minister’s bureau is about 5 million shekels. Assume just five of those ministers are redundant, than that is a saving of around 25 million shekels per annum. Add on the overheads and you are probably looking at an “investment” of taxpayers’ money at around 130 million shekels.

More perspective? Earlier this year, Zvi Eckstein, a former deputy governor of the Bank of Israel, and labor economics researcher, Sergei Sumkin, published a report. They concluded that: –

Israel’s bureaucratic red tape is costing the state NIS 14 billion ($3.9 b) a year; 1% of its gross domestic product (GDP).

That 14 billion seems to be a very familiar number, no?

I recall a meeting from many years ago, when I was working in the Ministry of Health as a junior economist. We were tasked to come up with ideas for how to cut the budget. The discussion was long and varied. Nobody was interested in my thoughts about reducing the number of civil servants…..let alone the ministerial aides.

The start up economy that will not slow down

23 September 2019
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Categories: Afternoon Tea in Jerusalem, Blog, Business, Israel

Israel’s economy seems intent on defying logic. The country has been and remains in political flux for over  a year. And yet the economy grew by 3.6% in the first half of 2019, a better performance than 2018 and way ahead of many competitors in the OECD.

There is no doubt that much of that success is garnered in and around the high-tech sector, roughly 15% of employment in the country. And it should also be pointed out that the gap between the those who have and those who have not is one of the widest in the West. That said, almost every week brings a new set of shining headlines:

  • The relatively new area of Foodtech already boasts around 250 companies in the Holy Land and has raised nearly US$150m in this year alone.
  • American vehicle trading and services giant, Cox Automotive, is the latest to form a partnership with a Tel Aviv-based smart mobility innovation centre.
  • Facebook announced the acquisition of yet another Israeli start up, Servicefriend, that creates bots — chat clients for messaging apps based on artificial intelligence.

All very neat. What prompted me to focus on these tidbits of news was the latest survey from IVC. It is a 60 page survey, covering nearly 50 years. Here are some of the highlights.

  1. M&As in the past decade have totaled almost 1,900, close to double the previous period.
  2. Around 3,000 overseas corporations have activities in Israel, with over half coming from America. (I am not sure how BDS proponents deal with that issue.)
  3. Of the top ten foreign corporations, Microsoft has 161 sets of activity, Intel – 116 and Samsung – 63. (Again, this looks to be a massive BDS failure.)
  4. Since 1990, over 350 r&d centres have been opened by foreign companies; Phillips, SAP, Sony, Alibaba, et al.

By way of summary, during the first quarter of 2019, over US$14 billion was paid in 66 exits, the best performance in five years.

You have to wonder how the macro economy would have performed if there had been a functioning central government in Jerusalem for the past 12 months.

 

 

Israel’s global economic success

30 August 2019
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Categories: Afternoon Tea in Jerusalem, Blog, Business, Israel

I have had my complaints about how the Israeli economy has been managed over the past year. And there are still several unfavourable signs. However, it is now time to stand up and to salute a success, an achievement which other countries could be jealous about.

You see it is not just that Israeli exports have risen 3% in the first half of 2019. The two key points are that:

  1. “High-tech services exports made up some 60% of the sector’s revenue and 30% of Israel’s total goods and services’ exports.” The significance going forward is that these orders tend to be recurring. And that is good news.
  2. Israel’s exports to Europe,  an enormous but very shaky economy, rose 12%. And despite everything, exports to the USA rose 3%.

Cautionary note: Israel’s exports are dominated by 10 large companies such as Intel. The latter had held up production in 2018. And there was a particularly large one-off contract to the UK in the chemical sector.

In any event, given the global worries over downturns, this is a very impressive performance. And this is one of the key reasons why Fitch, a credit rating agency, still grades Israel at A+

 

 

“How’s work? I’m fine, no really”

16 August 2019
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Categories: Afternoon Tea in Jerusalem, Blog, Business, Jerusalem

“Stop screwing yourself over” is an excellent Ted Talk by Mel Robbins. One of her key points is that when we are asked how we are doing, we often reply “fine”, and with the flattest of intonations. In effect, we are lying to ourselves.

Self employed, just starting out in a company, or C-Class executive, we all look for something meaningful to do at work and with our lives. Earlier this week, I read an item from somebody who today is a practicing Jew. His article traces his past from Woodstock and the heavy culture of the late 1960s to his life in Jerusalem today.

Finding out the true definition of ‘fine’ was a slow and sometimes very painful story. He learnt that what he had valued as a golden lifestyle was simply worthless. He needed to change all ways up.

Trying to answer the question “what is it that we actually do?” often appears so simple, yet it is rarely so straightforward to answer. When discussing this topic with CEOs, I tend to rephrase the conundrum:

“What is it that you are selling”?

The answer is not a service nor a product nor a piece of entertainment. As Ray Kroc of McDonalds was soon to realise, he was offering a family experience. He did this by pricing out chips and sugared drinks to his clientele.

Yesterday, I spent some time pitching to a new potential client. They are seeking help to raise funds for a new social project. They described their achievements to date in glowing terms.

Then came my turn to play business coach and mentor. They could not even begin to respond when I questioned what would make the financial contributor “fine” if they are to be associated with such an effort.

So, be honest. How are you doing today……..and why? More importantly, what do you need to change in order to answer with a smile in your voice.

 

 

Can Bibi afford to talk “economy” during the election campaign?

11 August 2019
1 Comment
Categories: Afternoon Tea in Jerusalem, Blog, Business, Israel, Jerusalem

Israel’s second general election for 2019 is scheduled for 17th September. What we know is that:

  • It is about which key politician can more successfully ‘dirty down’ their prime opponent in the eyes of the public.
  • Policies are rarely mentioned by anyone.
  • The PM, Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu is fighting for his personal freedom.
  • The result is too close to predict.

Historically, Israeli elections are determined by the question: Which party is seen as the most resolute to resolve the country’s military and diplomatic issues? This is a direct contra to many Western electorates, who are more connected to economic and social policies.

Ostensibly, over the economy, Bibi is seen as having an advantage. He is perceived as having been a great Minister of Finance at the beginning of the millennium, leading the country out of a small recession. Today, the Israeli currency, the shekel, is considered a safe global bet. And despite a concern over a growing budget deficit, Israel’s credit rating remains unchanged.

So where are the “buts”?

Let’s start with that same budget gap, which is growing, sharply. At nearly 4% and rising, you cannot ignore it. The only reason that harsh cuts have not been forced through in the public is because it is election time. They will have to be put off until October or later.

Meanwhile, economic growth is slowing down to around 1.5%. This has been reflected in the unemployment figures, which have risen unexpectedly to 4.1%. Awkward for anybody in power to admit.

And as for the structural anomalies, they exist everywhere. The government has neither the strength nor the interest to haul them in. To take a simple example, look at the olive oil industry.

With some irony, despite history and geographic location, Israel imports much of its olive oil. These imports, like many other food imports are heavily regulated via tariffs. Earlier this year, the tariffs were relaxed. Local manufacturers were forced to drop their prices.

I do not believe that any worker was laid off due to this price war. And now that the tariffs are about to be reinstated? Simple, the local manufacturers can raise their prices. And does the government care?

By the time prices of olive oil will start to climb again, the election will be over.

Warning! Your leader is a ‘gaslighter’

5 August 2019
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Categories: Afternoon Tea in Jerusalem, Blog, Business

I am indebted to a great article in Psychology Today magazine by Preston Ni. And he recalls:

The term gaslighting originated from the 1944 film Gaslight, in which a husband systematically tormented his wife by convincing her that she’s insane, thereby robbing her objectivity and self-worth.

Ni goes on to cite eight types of manipulative scenarios. For example, politicians who rule through isolate and divide. Or there are bosses who perpetuate the ‘fake savior of a situation’, thus making others subservient. And all of this is wrapped in a combination of false promises and psychological control.

In my work as a business coach and business mentor, I have come across many cases, where clients are uncertain how to break free from situations. Their employer seems so nice. The client seems so important. And ‘what will happen without them if they leave’ is a cry I often hear.

Such episodes can be seen as a ‘golden cage’ situation. You feel that life is so good where you are and / or things cannot possibly be better elsewhere and / or that you cannot abandon your superior that you have to stay. Unfortunately, that picture in your head is frequently just an illusion.

That picture bears as much reality as the ones drawn by those same politicians and bosses who scare you into staying with them. After all, they cry, there is nobody else out there but me. Who could replace me and how could you think about letting me down?

So what is the tell-tale sign that you are up against one of these dangerous manipulators? Well, they are so busy pointing the finger at you and you are so concerned about protecting your image in their eyes, you forget what is most important. The word “I”. In other words, yourself.

The gaslighters do not allow you that freedom.

Now look around you. When do you next have an opportunity to vote? When are next due to talk with your department senior? When are you about to face up to a supplier you cannot tolerate? Consider if they might have a role in that 1941 film, and then find an appropriate response ……. based around your own requirements.

 

 

 

Can you hear what is happening to the Israeli economy?

30 July 2019
1 Comment
Categories: Afternoon Tea in Jerusalem, Blog, Business, Israel, Jerusalem

Two months ago, the Times of Israel wrote a positive summary of the Israeli economy.

Unemployment in Israel is at around 4%, inflation is at the lower edge of the nation’s target of 1% to 3%, and the increase in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018 was 3.3% , still higher than the average growth in 2018 for OECD nations — the world’s richest — forecast to be 2.37%……The economy has not faced a recession in the last 15 years, and GDP in dollar terms has increased by over 55% since 2010. …….GDP per capita in Israel was $40,270 in 2017, up from just $1,229 in the 1960s, and is now “firmly in line with high income nations,”……..

To ram the point home, GDP for Q119 has just been revised upwards to 5%. Egypt and Israel are contemplating joint liquid oil exports from the Sinai desert. The shekel is considered a solid performer on global currency markets. What could be wrong?

Well for a start, the government’s budget is spiraling out of control, 3.8% of GDP and seemingly rising. The cost of living is relatively high and getting higher, thus ensuring the continued extremes in wealth variations between rich and poor. Strikes in the public sector – teachers, diplomats – are looming up ahead. And the voice of the Minister of Finance is not to be heard.

And then we come to that minor nuisance of the general election on 17th September. The point is that the Prime Minister, Netanyahu, is completely engrossed in ensuring that he secures yet tenure – and thus, he assumes, multiplying his chances of avoiding trials for embezzlement etc,

Almost daily,  we hear Netanyahu’s complaints about opposition politicians. We rarely hear about new policies on social and economic matters. For example, labour productivity remains weak and thus reflects on the economy’s ability to rejuvenate itself. For all the positive stats, poverty effects around 25% of the Israeli population. Traffic jams clog the 3 major cities. The high-tech industry cannot fill thousands of places. And the food sector is so regulated and protected that prices to the consumer continue to be bloated.

The pain is there for all to see and most citizens to feel. And meanwhile, the interim government is holidaying on the beach, while plotting how to stay in power come September 17th. I ask that you keep the noise down and not disturb them so that they can enjoy their well deserved break from work.

 

Bahrain’s failed economic conference & Israel’s economic success

3 July 2019
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Categories: Afternoon Tea in Jerusalem, Blog, Business, Israel, Jerusalem

So here’s the deal.

Trump says to the Palestinians: “I will get you peace and a homeland. The route starts at a conference in Bahrain, where I will deliver to you a US$50 billion economic package.”

President Abbas – in his mid 80s, last elected nearly 20 years ago and now for funding the Munich athletes massacre – responds with a ‘no way’. In fact, he even arrests a businessman from Hebron, who attended in a private capacity.

It is not clear what will be the outcome of the conference, where neither the Israeli nor the Palestinian governments were in attendance. Israel scored a few cheap PR points by claiming it was prepared to go along with the concept. However, with more elections coming up in Israel and also the midterms in the USA, further progress will probably be limited for the next few months.

And yet, Israel seemingly does get quite a bit out of ‘these silent changes’.

First, we know that the Bahrainis welcomed Israel pretty openly. Interviews were awarded to journalists from the Holy Land. An isolated moment? No, because second, Israel’s Foreign Minister, Yisrael Katz, popped up at a conference on climate in the United Arab Emirates.

Do not kid yourselves! Trade between Israel and the Arab block is taking another move forward. There are no official numbers, but they must be in the billions, bilaterally. So much for BDS.

And as for the conference itself? I do not believe that individual Israelis sat around politely and interested parties from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE, et al also sat around politely without talking to each other and without discussing some numbers. The Palestinian issue may hold back full disclosure between the parties but their are rumours of tech deals and more.

A shame for all nations and their economies that President Abbas prefers antagonism and hatred to some definitive initial steps towards mutual recognition.

 

 

Jerusalem’s global economy hits a traffic jam

1 July 2019
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Categories: Afternoon Tea in Jerusalem, Blog, Business, Israel, Jerusalem

Not far from the central bus station in Jerusalem is a run down building that was once a well known powerhouse in the national economy. The current owners are demanding a lot of money for anyone to renovate it and then rent it. Equally significantly, the site owns about 20 parking places.

Let me clarify: Each space is worth about 700 nis a month, close to US$200. Jerusalem is a city that suffers from daily traffic jams. A light railway is being constructed right through several of the main congestion points. And several major public buildings are also going up, often in the same areas.

To add to the picture, the parking problem in the high-tech centres is a bad joke. You can now begin to appreciate that the aforementioned property is even more valuable than ever.

The issue was highlighted in a recent article. It is estimated that “highteckies” are highly mobile people – around 20% swop positions each year. One common reason is that side benefits, which include easy drives to work and parking facilities, are better elsewhere.

Jerusalem is no longer a city, where the key jobs are in the civil service or in tourism. The city today hosts 485 high-tech enterprises, including 300 start ups. Other stats: –

  • 144 are in the sciences or biotech.
  • 31 starts ups were added to the list since the beginning of 2018.
  • There are 19 r&d centres
  • The city hosts 22 venture capital groups.

The growth of Jerusalem’s economy has been amazing. And there is seemingly no end to the progress. For example, earlier this week Jerusalem launched an accelerator programme for ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) entrepreneurs looking to establish startup companies. Although comprising around 11% of the population, barely 1% of such people are engaged in the high-tech world.

At the same time, we saw New York Governor, Cuomo, touring high-tech successes in Israel’s capital city. Clearly the man and his team feel that this is something that his ‘small’ city can learn from.

Jerusalem’s high-tech sector needs to be serviced. (BTW, the new train service from Tel Aviv was launched recently, but with technical faults and delays galore). There is no doubt that much of the construction is much needed, but you cannot but feel that the central planners have got their coordination and timing wrong.

 

 

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