Sometime towards the end of October 2022, Israelis will go to the polls for the 5th time in 3 and a bit years.

It is a pretty stupid way to prove that you are the only democracy in the Middle East.

In the 4 previous elections, Netanyahu was unable to form a stable government. He ended up making enough enemies of previous friends on the right of his party. While never a homogenous group, the various factions in addition to some left wing parties managed to hand out enough sticky plaster and stay together for a fraction over a year.

Last week, that coalition collapsed. Unless, there is no last minute surprise – and this is the land of miracles – the voters will have their say again. The pundits are – would you believe it – currently predicting the same result!

For those new to Israeli politics, let me explain two core fundamentals to understanding this game.

1. Since the founding of the state in 1948, all governments have been coalitions. How complex is that? This outgoing team has about 36 ministers, while the Kenesset has 120 members.
2. Most elections in democracies are determined by how people feel. That is often a reflection of the perceived position of the how much money you have in your pocket. The economy is rarely an important electoral issue in Israel.

You would have thought that political instability is bad for the economy. Not in Israel, at least not for now. The outstanding success of the tech sector, combined with the riches from gas revenues and the taxes from the property sector have all combined to keep the finances stable. Despite corona, Israel’s debt ratio continues to fall rapidly.

It is true that the Israeli economy contracted further than had been initially forecast in early 2022, at close to 2% annually. However, inflation remains relatively modest despite higher energy prices. Unemployment remains at under 4%. And, what counts is how Israelis will be feeling towards the Autumn as opposed to today. That is a relatively long time off.

The politicians know this. For example, the opposition parties, led by Netanyahu’s Likud party, have spent the past 4 months blocking a move to give financial compensation the self-employed. This is one key sector of the economy still suffering from the impact of corona. The logic is that the delays will help to disrupt the functioning of the government and thus help in its downfall.

They were right. And the self employed and their families continue to suffer.

What happens next?

First the Kenesset needs to confirm finally that it is dissolving itself. As you can tell from the above, few gambits are certain just now.