BBC? CNN? Sky? They are all asking if the world is emerging from a recession. Every little new detail is analysed. Today, the UK announced a significant fall in the predicted number of house repossessions, and thus…..

The cruel fact is that officially nobody can say where the economy is at, until formal stats are released looking back over six months.

Israel being Israel, people do not hang around, waiting for announcements. In fact, despite the rise in unemployment way over 7%, there is a large amount of anecdotal evidence to suggest that our economy is commencing an upswing.

Here’s what I mean.

• I am trying to book  a week’s holiday in August in the north of the country. Many popular hotels are full.
• Today, I spoke with my insurance agent, who specialises in policies for the family and small practices. While this a sector liable to cut back in a recession, he is enjoying a boom period.
• Similarly, a client, specialising in internet research, has recorded a string of new projects since the beginning of the summer.
• And today’s newspapers are full of reports about how house prices have been rising as far back as January 2009.

It is early days yet. This week, the Bank of Israel kept the interest rate at 0.5%, but it will not be long before that moves upwards. That is the kind of change, which results from officialdom not wanting the economy to overheat. Boy, it will be great to worry about too much growth!