Israel’s post election economics
Last week, I pondered whether “after nearly 15 years of near continuous success, if the Israeli economic boom is about to be swallowed up in the squabbles of invisible and unaccountable politicians”.
A few days later, figures were released that showed Israel had raked in around 3.6 billion nis – almost a billion dollars – more than expected in tax revenues. Now to give that figure some perspective, it would more or less cover the handouts demanded by Netanyahu’s political allies to join his government. Alternatively, the Bank of Israel is already hinting at cuts required for the 2016 budget of around a similar amount. Whatever, Israel’s public finances appear sound.
So were my earlier warnings inaccurate? Well, it is certainly true, that extra dosh like this is a healthy windfall for any exchequer. However……..
However, look where much of the cash has come from. First, people are spending more than expected. So, there are indications of a mini consumer boom. Second, purchases of housing have leapt forwards, partially speared on by the threat of new taxes in this arena.
In other words, the growth has not come form higher exports or investment, and neither from a high-tech boom. With some pertinence, on the same day, figures were released, revealing how more people are now looking for work. And on Friday, we learned that the CPI has risen by a large and unexpected 0.6%. Is inflation on the move again.
So where does this set of news leave the Israeli economy? The answer has remained the same over the past few months – in need of some urgent leadership and solid management. Today, that is sorely lacking from Netanyahu. His team has four years to learn how to succeed.
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