Election results and an economic boost: UK or Israel?
Scenario 1: David Cameron’s right of centre Conservative Party springs a surprise election win last week in the UK. The stock exchange in London surged ahead and sterling had fun at the expense of other currencies.
Scenario 2: Bibi Netanyahu’s right of centre Likud Party sprung a surprise victory in the Israeli elections two months ago. The financial outlook for the country looks uncertain.
Now both Prime Ministers have great credentials when it comes to the economy. In the UK, the Conservatives have taken the country beyond the grim era of the credit crunch. Netanyahu can claim much of the credit for Israel posting high growth figures, near annually, since 2002. So why the difference in perception?
The question is especially pertinent, when you consider that Cameron still faces many challenges on the economy. There are demands to hold back on spending to ensure that previous gains are consolidated. Yet the business sector and others are crying out for additional financial incentives. However, as the Cameron-Osborne team have done well to date (as was just confirmed by the electorate), there is an overall belief that they will pull through again.
In Israel, there remains confusion. On the positive side, Fitch and other agencies maintain Israel’s high credit rating. Unemployment is at a historic low – about 5.4%. At least according to the stats, inflation is minimal. Multinationals, such as Lockheed Martin and Microsoft, continue to invest in the Holy Land.
And yet?
- Two months after the elections, and only today a government may (or may not) be formed. Where is the long-term management required? Everyone knows that a coalition based on one solitary vote does not allow the Minister of Finance to impose a budget that he believes in.
- It is an open secret that during the negotiations to create the new coalition government, the various small parties made demands worth billion dollars. The actual amounts vary from source to source. For a cabinet that will be asked to cut a similar amount from the 2016 budget, that is simply stupid if not down right irresponsible.
- Where are the true debates to reduce the price of housing for young couples? What has been mentioned to limit the power of vested interests such as the Fruit Growers Association or unions at the Electricity Company? Why will resources be diverted away from universities or from helping small businesses, merely in order to pay for ‘coalition bribes”? I could add more.
It is these issues that force outsiders to consider whether Israel’s new government – whenever it might finally commence working – has what it takes. After nearly 15 years of near continuous success, is the Israeli economic boom about to be swallowed up in the squabbles of invisible and unaccountable politicians?
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