Creating wealth in a spiralling global recession ain’t just a mathematical conundrum. In the UK, retail chains are folding. In Israel, the high tech sector is feeling the heat – actually the cold. The implosion at Nortel HQ will impact on Israel, employees, clients and suppliers. Microsoft’s retrenchment will not bypass its r&d centre in Israel. Money is tight.

“Building Wealth – Lessons From The British Aristocracy” is tongue-in-cheek, yet fascinating attempt to enable us to learn some lessons from history. The author, Nadav Manham, asks how could so many astute and wealthy people of influence in Nineteenth Century Britan lose so much money and so quickly.

His answer rests with “poverty of imagination”. You need to realise that the fundamentals have changed and act accordingly.

In Israel, we could rest on our laurels. This week, Moody’s did not downgrade Israel’s credit rating. Intel’s Israel plants will not be part of the company’s workforce cutbacks. Teva, the world’s largest manufacturer of generic drugs is recruiting 100 more employees. Etc.

All very encouraging, but not enough. The banks are not lending. The credit crunch has arrved, and thus even the most successful companies will be choked away from customary sources of liquidity.

I myself came across 2 examples of the squeeze this week. On Wednesday, I sat down with a serial entrepreneur, embarking on his next cleantech enterprise. A sold track record – his previous ventures is selling in the tens of millions annually – he now requires new venture capital. The uplift will be absolute to the economy in terms of employment and saved resources. Mega and in a short period of time.  However, currently, the money tap is closed tight.

And I have been approached by an established hightech outfit. With pre-orders on their books, they need a credit line in order to launch a sales campaign of a new product. Their regular bank is not an option at this stage. No lending means less sales, which means less money to pay employees, which……

 “In order to meet the minimum capital adequacy mandated by the Bank of Israel’s Supervisor of Banks Rony Hizkiyahu, the banks need to find an extra NIS 4 billion.”And the finance ministry is worringly quiet on the issue. Why?

Israel has a general election in less than 3 weeks. When a new governement is eventually sworn in, let us hope and pray that it brings with it a monetary policy that reaches out beyond Economic 101, as laid out in 1945.

The Gaza war may have cost Israel around US$3b, but the economy has not collapsed. And yesterday, it was announced that commercial quantities of gas have been found off the coast of Haifa. It could be enough to meet Israel’s needs for decades, as well as help to further a greener energy policy.

So what’s the connection to the Gaza economy?

Step back. Since 1993 and the Oslo Accords, the Palestinian economy has been bolstered by overseas support, particularly from Europe. On average, 25% of the revenue of the Palestinian Authority has come from taxpayers from overseas governments. Although the World Bank has called this the largest support per capita of a population since World War II, there has been little effective accountability and transparency.

The Gaza economy in particular is heavily dependent on agriculture and the public sctor. Unfortunately, the quality greenhouses left behind after the Israeli evacuation in 2005 were soon ruined and became training grounds for military recruits.

Interestingly, despite opposition from the World Bank and Hamas’s animosity with Fatah, it is the civil service payroll that has risen significantly in the past two years. How?  Dr Rachel Ehrenfeld, an expert on the funding in international terror, provides some answers. She notes that:

Despite Fatah-Hamas disagreements, the Palestinian Authority’s Fatah-led government announced on Jan. 15, 2008, its intentions to give Hamas 40% ($3.1 billion) of the $7.4 billion pledged in December 2007 by international donors. In October 2008, despite the crackdown on Fatah members in Gaza, the Palestinian Authority was paying the salaries of 77,000 “employees.” In December 2008, under U.S. and international pressure, Israel delivered between $64 million and $77 million in cash to Gaza.

In the past 2 weeks, Gulf States and UNRWA have promised around US$200m to repair Gaza. Yes, it is needed, desperately so. But will all the money go the the proper destinations? Given past experiences, that must be doubted.

There is an alternative to this economic waste. Step forward and recall what is now known about new gas fields near Haifa. In the summer of 2007, British Gas tried to reach an agreement with the Palestinian Authority to develop proven gas reserves in Gaza. The value to the local economy could be at least US$1 billion.

Since then, Hamas has invested in drilling and digging ……..tunnels, tunnels that smuggle weapons and contraband in order to satisfy their hatred against their enemies. 

Last Thursday, I was co-moderator of a fantastic networking event. It linked the Jerusalem Business Networking Forum with the CleanIsrael Network, the Association of Renewable Energy Industries, and the Movement for a Stronger Israel.

11 new cleantech companies presented themselves in front of a strong audience, led by Naomi Zur. She is deputy mayor of Jerusalem and has a direct mandate to push this sector in the new administration.

What makes this so impressive? Well, in the midst of a global recession, a war and a new drought in this part of the Middle East, these 11 companies are seeking to make a difference. And not just wishful thinking. Glen Schwaber, with 15 years of experience in VCs and General Partner at Israel Cleantech Ventures noted that 3 years ago, nobody put their money in cleantech. Last year, around US$200m was committed to 20 projects in Israel.

The details. Jerusalem is already known as the world leader in developing solar energy tech. Papers delivered by enertglobal, G3Solar and others rammed home that message. Wind energy, biofuel, watertech etc are all fully represented in the Holy City. Cequesta Ltd is already delivering wastewater devices to Europe.

Essentially, these companies have struggles to find their way through “the system”. The activity is finally being acknowledged by central government. Sigal Admoni of the Industry Ministry, who presented for the first time in public a US$100 million national Renewable Energy Programme. Unlike many of the other politicians, she sat through all the company discussions.

On a cold winter’s night, there were a 100 + people in the room. They represented the interested and curious, biz dev types, and investors. The truth is that the IP content on show was worthy of a global audience.

It showed the way forward to a new wealth of commercial potential. I have generated 3 very key and exciting meetings as a result of the event. 

Israel is fighting this sad war for two reasons; to protect its society and to recreate a platform for peace destroyed by Hamas.

Internally, Hamas has violated the basic human rights of large parts of the Gazan community. There is overwhelming video evidence, showing its continuous cruelty to Palestinian opponents. The small Christian community in Gaza suffers from consistent harassment. Hilary Clinton and David Miliband, the latter no close friend of Israel, have censured Hamas for its use of children and women as human shields. Even the UN has long failed to confirm that the supplies delivered near daily via Israel are not hoarded by local power brokers.

The cartoonist Steve Breen recently asked, what does Hamas stand for? “Hiding in Mosques and Schools” is the satiric but sad and accurate answer.

Re Israel, the Hamas position is simple. Its charter from 1988 rejects Israel with violent and anti-semitic rhetoric. When Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005, she left behind a thriving greenhouse industry, now the end point of many Hamas-controlled smuggling tunnels. After 930 days, Hamas continues to hold POW, Gilad Shalit, without one visit from the Red Cross. In 8 years, Hamas and its lackeys have sent nearly 9,000 rockets and mortars into Israeli population centres.

Most of these rockets have been launched since Hamas captured political control of the territory. In the 3 weeks of fighting, over 700 have landed in Israel, a ratio of 1 for 1.5 Palestinians killed in the fighting. (No small proportional revenge there from Hamas). None of the rockets have been targeted at the Israeli troops encamped in the area, but only at civilians.

Israel has 3 options to deal with this vile threat.

a) Do nothing and hope or wait for a ceasefire. That has been done for 8 years. Hamas itself ripped up the summer 2008 truce.

b) Wait for international intervention. The EU border observers left their positions over 2 years ago. Egypt has failed miserably to prevent massive weapon smuggling. Only now do we hear of France, the UK and others trying to work out how to stop the smuggling.

c) Take significant action to stop the violence and thus help get the moderate Palestinians back to the peace talks. That will not be easy nor pretty, but it offers a longer term message of hope for all communities.

If ever the phrase “fighting for peace” had a place, it is in Gaza, January 2009.

If Israel has to fight a war,it must be doing so for two reasons – to protect its citizens and to ensure that the real military threat of Hamas does not resurface in the future.

Israel was established as a pluralistic society. For all the social and military constraints of its past and present, Israel is a vibrant centre for at least 4 global religions (and their internal frictions). It has 3 offical national languages. Non-Jews enter politics through their own party or with others. And thus Israel has built a firm basis for internal fusion.

That is a unique set of circumstances in the Middle East, a democracy worthy of protection. In fact, even as Israel fights its war with Hamas, on the ground, there are numerous coexistence projects moving forward – genuinely working towards a stronger society for all. Here are some brief examples: –

Just recently, under the auspices of the US-Israel Binational Science, 20 researchers, Israeli-Jew, Israeli non-Jew, and Palestinians met in Haifa to discuss potential routes of academic cooperation.

 I-Rox is a software company, operated by ultra-orthodox Jewish women. It is currently developing a medical administration programme for the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah. One off? No – look at g.ho.st, co-owned by an Israeli and Palestinian partnership. As my good friend Lisa Damast has recorded, this shows how two politically diverse groups can successfully cooperate and coexist.

Personnel of the national ambulance brigade, Magen David Adom, come from  all sectors of society. My daughter volunteers once a week, works with Muslims and enters their villages. And this last month was typical of that scenario.

These anecdotes, commercial or otherwise,  are just a few of the large pile of detail that I come across every month. One of the main reasons for their existence is the basic wish of Israel to live with all.

It is that desire and opportunity that Hamas opposes. Through its charter, its hatred and its weapons, Hamas seeks to crush this progress and success.

Global recession? War in Gaza? Yet again, more poor international press. The Israeli economy has faced all this in the past and still delivers to its trading partners.

The Israeli Ministry of Industry has just released its latest newsletter. It describes some of the leading M&As from the past few weeks, valued at over US$400. They include industry leaders, such as St Judes Medical from the USA and Thales from France.

In the other direction, Israeli internet giant, Checkpoint, has bought out Nokia’s security appliance business.

The newsletter leads wit a quote from international banker and Governor of the Bank of Israel, Stanley Fischer

“If there is a significant improvement in the security situation following the military operation, it will have a positive effect on the economy, and in particular on the scope of investments, both local and foreign.”

 

“My experience with crises over time has taught me to be optimistic. It takes a long time for a crisis to start off. We have known since mid-2007 that a crisis was on its way. In the end a crisis breaks out suddenly, but from my experience crises tend to end faster than expected.”

Not just the words of an optimistic senior civil servant. Despite some profit taking, the Tel Aviv Stock exchange rose 4% this week.  In parallel, a special report from Moody’s has noted that:

“Israel’s present political and financial shocks do not pose an immediate threat to the country’s risk profile, including its A1 rating and stable outlook.”

Recession or war – there is smart investment money still around, and now you know why some of it is heading towards Israel.

As many colleagues overseas return to their desks, you can hear the unasked question in the conversation: “So how are you managing, whilst 20% of the country is at war?”

Today represents a typical day.

I had an early morning meeting in Jerusalem. On the way, I made a condolence call to my neighbour, whose nephew was killed in the fighting. Down the road is another mourning family, close friends of my kids. And opposite us, the parents are camped at a Tel Aviv hospital with their wounded son.

Go to a meeting with a smile they say. Actually, I was pleased to meet up with Cupron. Their CEO and I have a few bits of common past. It is wonderful to see a new tech coming through into Europe and America.

Next stop – income tax department. You think a war is going to stop them from working! Now, if you were to stop the flow of coffee to their  staff…..

More seriously, my second investment call for the day, took me to the North West of Jerusalem, a family company with a small food empire, profitable and looking for a new injection of cash. One thing about Israelis – always rushing around but rarely 2 minutes away from their next bite to eat. A good industry to be in. So hopefully, this deal will work its through over the next few months.

Next up is a skype call linking a disruptive tech in the homeland security field to the UK. This is something that I have had my eye on for some time, and all sides sound keen. Very exciting and with some applications to the war in Gaza.

If there is any time left, I shall be working on the Jerusalem Cleantech Meet Up next Thursday, where I am the moderator. This is pitching 10 start ups in front of a large audience, including city hall bigwigs.

What’s the point?  It’s fun and varied, but you cannot escape the fact that what is happening down south is terrible. Even today, Hamas sent over 10 Kassam rockets, which landed in Israeli population centres and cities. Not one was targeted at Israeli troops on the border. Equally, those in Gaza should not have to suffer.

What Israel is defending is her pluralistic society. Part of its strength is an economy, based on openess and trade with others. I try to carry on as normal, but I do not ignore the efforts of others less safe. Yes, you mention the war and you think of others less fortunate where ever they may be.

Israel has spent much of her 60 years fighting wars to protect its existence. Despite these adversities, it is become a global high tech power and has recently joined the OECD.

The war with Hamas provides another example of how Israel’s economy continues to seek growth, despite thousands being conscripted and vast parts of the country under on-going rocket attack.

Here are 4 examples of what I mean: –

  • The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange has risen 6% during the first 9 days of hostilities. It accepts that the country is being run by strong team of economists, dedicated to long term financial stability.
  • In the same period, the shekel has not suffered any major devaluation against the major currencies, primarily for similar reasons to the above.
  • The Office of the Chief Scientist has just allocated another 225 m shekels ( US$60M) of government money to new high tech projects. Or look at LiveU, which has raised US$9 m, and whose TV tech is now helping live news to be broadcast into homes throughout the world.
  • Yesterday, I participated in a networking meeting, where the names of 6 Israeli companies were mentioned, all signing new agreements with overseas partners, specifically in the UK and in Romania.

The point: Invest in peace and growth, not in war machines. The result – optimistic predictions from overseas pundits.

Now contrast this to the economy of Gaza. The Palestinian Authority took over in 1993 under the Oslo Accords. Israel withdrew in 2005, and Hamas came to power over a year ago.

The successful greenhouses left behind by Israel and which received a US$15m from the World Bank are now dust bowls. Hamas has built hundreds of smuggling tunnels, but few houses and there are no bunkers for citizens (as in Israel). Ad-hoc factories for producing Kassam rockets have emerged throughout the region, but there is no attempt to create a civilian manufacturing base.

And so the Gaza tragedy goes on.

War is terrible for all sides. Israel should be recognised for taking the courageous decision to defend her citizens. Its economy will probably emerge from this period of turmoil without too many battle scars.

And here is a central lesson here for Israel’s neighbours in society building. Wealth creation does not come via exporting hatred.

Hamas’s war with Israel directly impinges on the lives of 0.5m civilians. Add in battalions of regular soldiers and reservists, stationed in the region. And more are being rushed to secure the north, against a possible reprisal attack from Hizbollah in Lebanon. Maybe 15% of the population has been sucked in to the horrific scenario.

In Gaza, the makeshift Hamas society, based on smuggling and repression, is imploding under the weight of Israel’s attacks. Many basic services are not functioning with the leadership suspected of hiding in mosques and hospitals.

Israel offers a different approach, where as far as possible life goes on normally.

What do I mean? Take a large food distribution company, which I visited on Thursday. Located near the port of Ashdod, where many rockets have landed this week, its 550 workers are continuing to clock in. The company is also making a special effort to distribute special parcels to families directly in the line of fire. And that is no one-off story.

In Tel Aviv, the stock market has ticked along, actually rising 5% this week despite the hostilities. I have heard of at least one finance house organising deliveries for citizens living under the Kassams sent from Gaza.

Ashkelon’s Sapir Institute for Higher Learning has been forced to close its classrooms. Some of the students have put together an ad-hoc local radio station, broadcasting mesages of support to affected communities.

It is self-help. It is mutual respect.  A Druse soldier was killed by a rocket and many went to the funeral. The city of Jerusalem has organised for whole families from the south to be hosted locally for a few days. And so the list goes on.

Hamas has deliberately refused any partnership with Israel’s way of life. Israel’s society is now 60 years old. It has emerged out of the depths of struggle and human despair, yet evolved, for all its faults, in to a showcase of pluralism.

The war against Hamas is not just aimed at protecting Israel’s special jewel. The conduct of the home front during the war helps to show off its success.

The world never acknowledged it, but 8 years ago Hamas launched a war against Israel. Since then, it has fired over 8,000 Kassams, grad rockets and mortars against the Holy Land.

For all the complaints of the world over Israel’s military actions, nobody has offered an alternative. No authority has seriously taken Hamas aside and punished the schoolboy for consistently breaking the rules of humanity; POW imprisonment with no Red Cross visitations, firing at civilians, harassing Christians, using kids to dig tunnels, the murder of Fatah members, etc – all documented with evidence.

For once, Israel has responded, and in force. Yes, it is war and it is not pretty. The number of Palestinian killed is close to 400. (Ironically, the figures are similar to those slaughtered this week in the Congo, although the UN and the world press are keeping silent there.) Israel is winning for now. And although she does not have to apologise for success, just because she has better weaponry, neither is she celebrating.

Why? Because Israel knows what suffering is. Twenty years ago, many were afraid to visit Jerusalem, following the violence of the first Intifada. In 1991, there was a nightly exodus from Tel Aviv, as citizens fled the nocturnal scud attacks sent by Saddam Hussein. In 2000, the second Intifada rocked Jerusalemites again. And Druze, Jew, Christian and Muslim communities suffered as one from the inhuman barrage directed at them by the Lebanese Hizbollah in 2006. And now it is time to protect the south communities.

But it is more than that. When you think about it, beyond the standard rhetoric, Israel is showing that it believes in the sanctity of life and in protecting the right of the individual to live in peace. It is making a very painful stand to protect the basic human needs denied to so many by Hamas.

There is no joy in Israel’s streets. My friends do not go round yelping as the numbers tot up. This is not an issue of revenge. Contrast these reactopns to films and newspaper reports of Hamas-led celebrations, when their ammu has hit its mark in the past.

Israel has a proven track record at peace conferences. The Palestinians, and especially Hamas, have yet to show a proper understanding of that game. that is the heart of the problem.

Hamas still seeks the physical removal of Israel from the world. It constantly broke a ceasefire with Israel, attacking population centres. People in Gaza are now having to accept the consequences of actions taking by a Hamas leadership, motivated by hatred and not peace.

Let us hope and pray that in 2009, more leaders in the Middle East will realise that emnity only produces bloodshed and not peace.

As the world concentrates on the Israeli air forces efforts over the skies of Gaza, analysts are asking if the campaign will divert scarce resources away from pressing economic needs.

Consider the size of the issue. According to new IMF figures, Israel’s annual GNP (what she produces) per person stands at US$24,000. (Saudi Arabia – $21,220; UAE – $56,670).

The Tel Aviv stock market has dropped 1.5% in its first response to the campaign. Reservists are leaving work stations and putting on uniforms. Places of entertainment and tourist attractions in the south are empty. All this in light of a poor global economic outlook. And yet…..

Over the past decade, Israel’s economy has coped with an Intidfada, withdrawal from Gaza, wars in the north, and more. Until recently, growth remained around 5% per annum. In effect, Israel’s neighbours have forced her to develope a virtual technology for its economy. This allows the country to find success despite war rather because of peace.

If you are a high tech geek, you may call it a perverse form of search engine optimization technology – looking for a way through the clouded cyber space of war.

Specifically, regarding the events in Gaza:

  • Yes, industry in the south is winding down. There again, nearly, 8,000 Kassam rockets and mortars have landed in the region over 8 years, so these companies have been on a reduced footing for a long time.
  • Hotel bookings around Ashkelon are down (except for journalists). Again, I openly admit that people like myself have long stayed clear of Ashkelon for family holidays. So not much change there.
  • Aside from one-person businesses or SMEs in general, most organisations will continue to functions, especially in the Israel’s commercial centres further to the north.

The future? Who knows. Certainly reduced economic activity to begin with, but no disaster. Much will depend on the length of the military scope and the potential horrors that Hamas have threatened to launch against Israeli civilian targets. And it is a threat not to be underestimated.

For the moment, Israel’s economy looks to be safe and under good management.

The fall of real estate in America, the collapse of several banks, retail chains like Woolworths disappearing – they all have something in common with the Madoff disaster. Greed. Most of us have been trying to make a bigger buck, and too quickly.

So, it has been refreshing this week to come across two Israeli start ups that are taking a step-by-step approach. Although in different fields, they share common features. They have developed a new technology. And they are taking a “softly softly” approach to the market channels overseas.

Leviathan Energy generates around 20% more energy from wind turbines by altering velocity input. In a global market, which is expected to expand around 30% p.a. for several years to come, including 2009, this makes them an exciting propositon.

The company has 3 product lines. Significantly, they are not looking to move them all at once. In fact, they are seeking joint ventures, partnerships which are a healthy feature of the cleantech phenomenon. They are prepared to share some of the “treasure”, and to help the environment at the same time.

Now leap over to Covertix, which has drawn up an ERP solution for companies to track, manage and control documentation. Covertix anticipates finishing beta trials in early 2009, and has an impressive list of leading names already demanding installations.

As above, my discussions with Covertix senior management show that they know the importance of learning to walk before you can run the world. Serious marketing will commence only once the trial stage has been completed.

You cannot just print money. Neither can you invent it. It has to be supported by something of value. It is this new and true value that these Israeli companies are creating, and which has been missing for years around the international financial markets.

So is Israel in a free fall recession?

I was walking around the centre of Beersheba yesterday. This is the capital of Israel’s Negev desert. Wind swept and cold, shoppers seemed to be elsewhere. Several premises were boarded up. Depressing.

The “Madoff effect” will hit the Jerusalem economy in particular, as so many NPOs are located there. Special ed, student research, medicare care for the poor and more – many of these groups will have their funding severely restricted overnight.

Go to the economic section of the newspapers and you will read about inflation levels dropping. The Bank of Israel has dropped interest rates, but cannot compete with the near zero levels in America, which is keeping Israeli exports relatively expensive at a time of lower demand.

Now look again, but look hard at what is going on, almost slipping by unnoticed. Yesterday, I was informed of a string of potential investment deals worth tens of millions of dollars in high tech. In today’s issue of the Yediot newspaper, the journal has highlighted thousands of positions in different sectors waiting to be filled. 

Personally, I took part this week in a new effort to launch a Cleantech forum in Jerusalem, specifically aimed at bring new technologies and biz dev facilitators together. The first meeting will be in about three weeks and we already have people queueing up to present. There are more companies than we believed.

The conclusion: It is not all doom and gloom. There is a very sorry side of this downturn, which will hit people badly. There is also a second economy, which is soldiering through and should emerge triumphant in 12 months time. That is the sector for the overseas analysts to act on, now.

I have spent the last few days sending out Christmas greetings to my business colleagues overseas. A few cautiously ask me: “Well, what’s it like for people like themselves in the Holy Land?” – They meanwhat’s it like for Christians, .

Fair question, and I did some research. It turns out that Israel is probably the one country in the Middle East with a growing Christian population. It comprises about 3% of the overall total, mainly from the Eastern Orthodox groupings.

In the West Bank, there are about 46,000 Christians and a further 300 in Gaza. Israel is making special arrangements for this small community to visit Bethlehem during Christmas.

The hotels around Bethlehem are expected to be full this Yuletide. 60,000 visitors will make their way to Bethlehem and Nazareth over the next 2 weeks. Taking 2008 as a whole, tourism has nearly doubled, specifically amongst pilgrims.

You can see how the government has targeted this sector of the tourist trade. For example, the Ministry of Tourism and other partners have invested over US$2 million in the Qsar el Yahud Baptism site on the River Jordan. Coaches driving around jerusalem are another example of this success.

In parallel, Civil Administration is striving hard to rid itself of a poor image. It has actively supported the export of wine from the Cremisan Silesian Monastary near Bethlehem. Passage around the holy sites is being made easier almot every week, despite on-going security concerns.

For Christians, it must be a truly spiritual event to celebrate Christmas, wandering amongst the names and sites usually only known through stories heard in school plays. The truth is that this special moment is open to all Christians, and every new visitor helps to strengthen the new-found peace around Bethlehem and Manger Square. It is up to all members of all religions to protect this progress.

Thursday morning. 6.30am. I am sitting quietly in my kitchen, when the radio announced another Kassam alert in the Sderot region. Hence began the last day of a 6 month ceasefire, when Hamas and its allies have launched 236 non-guided rockets and mortars into Israel.

Move forwarded another  two and half days. As my peaceful Sabbath ended, my mobile beeped a message at me. 10 rockets and 24 mortars had been fired on the day of rest. The targets – Bedouins, Jews, tourists, whoever was in the path of terror.

This has become a humanitarian problem! Over the past few years, over 20% of Sderot’s population have been fled. Trauma levels became intolerable a long time ago. The papers show pictures of kids running in to schools, escaping the path of the deadly weapons.

Yes, during the truce, Israel has responded sporadically. So, is there a difference between the two sides? Well consider these facts.

Christian communities. In Jerusalem, the municipality has been handing out Christmas trees to the needy. In Gaza this year, the American school and the YMCA have been bombed, and the culprits have not been apprehended. Strange, as hamas controls the region with an iron fist.

Prisoners. Last week, as part of a good will package, Israel released around 230 Palestinians prisoners, all of whom had received constant Red Cross supervision. Hamas holds one prisoner, Corporal Gilad Shalit, who has spent over 900 days in captivity, without one visit from any overseas go-between.

Protests. A quick search will find a myriad of  overseas bloggers, resident in Israel, whose writings strongly oppose the country. In Gaza, the distribution of newspapers such as Al Ayyam and Al Hayat al Jadida are prevented. they do not support Hamas opinions.

Pilgrims: The New York Times reported that Hamas refused to allow 2,000 pilgrims to join the Haj pilgrimage. In parallel, Israeli authorities are working even closer with the Bethlehem municipality to ensure that Christians are able to visit the holy sites over Christmas….And so the list goes on.

Before the truce ended, Israel sent a high ranking envoy to Egypt to see if the agreement could be extended. The Hamas leadership made an announcement, carried on the international media, that such a deal was not on offer.

Would you allow a “peace” like that on your borders? Is that the kind of future you want for the Middle East? What will make Hamas learn that this is not the way to bring quality of life for any of the people involved?

For decades, Israeli was noted for its high voter turnout. Call it cynicism, disgust at continuous stories of corruption, or a reflection of the performance of political leaders, participation continues to fall away.

In February 2009, the country will be asked to trot off to their polling stations yet again. On the radio this morning, I heard two anecdotes, which indicate towards yet another lowish turnout.

First, last night, Channel 2 broadcast the final (thank goodness) episode of Israel’s version of “Big Brother”. The ratings were close to 40%, far more than that expecedfor the party political broadcasts next due shortly. More significant, the winner – a 28 year female – received around 2 million votes, way above any number a political party has ever received from the electorate.

You can decide for yourselves what this says about the two “groups”. I noted that the participants had been locked away for 107 days, about the same length as the election campaign. And I did not watch ANY of the former. A clear lesson for me for the rest of the campaign.

Story number 2 features the primaries for the Kadima party, led by Livni. Apparently, earlier this week, a fax was sent round, supposedly from a government minister and party prominent, Edri, asking people for his support. But the message was spelt out in a very tasteless manner.

The point? It was not just that it was obvious that Edri would not do such a deed. The guy, who sent the fax, relayed it to the world from his own home. So the sender’s own name and phone was on the letter, which he tried to frame Edri for!

Only 8 weeks to go. Now that the Big Brother house is empty, we could lock up all the politicians in there. Would you miss ’em?

The reading of today’s financial papers may not look too encouraging. “The Economist” predicts zero growth for Israel in 2009. The Finance Minister, Bar-On, is quoted as saying: “I must honestly admit that the ability of the Israeli economy to cope with the global crisis is wide-ranging and effective. Even in the most optimistic scenario, the Israeli economy will suffer a substantial slowdown in 2009.”

So what channels are open to Israeli entrepreneurs, looking for a way out?

Last week I commented on the importance of social networking, especially in the Israeli economy. Israel is very much at the heart of the industrial revolution in communications, with software engineers often being leaders in blogging and more.

Today, I went to a working lunch, hosted by IBM, in honour of a visiting delegation from the SE Region of the American-Israel Chamber of Commerce. Based in Atlanta, Georgia, this state sees itself as the 29th largest economy in the world. And these guys were investing their time in coming to Israel. Why?

Look at the current crop of Georgians in the Holy Land. GE, UPS, Coca Cola, Panasonic all have major centres in Tel Aviv or nearby. GE have an r&d unit here, and “the real thing” is produced in Israel. 

Just over 2 years ago, McKesson of Atlanta bought out a small Israeli cardiology team, Medcon, for a cool US$100m. Today, 45 Israeli companies are based in Georgia and nearby.

The IBM building is no small edifice. On the same campus are the status symbols of Alcatel, Intel and others. The Atalanta-based delegation came looking for technologies that offer reimbursement in medical care. Specifically, in a state with a large city and an enormous hinterland, they need ways to provide services, equally to all.

The room contained around 15+ Israeli start ups; medical devices, logistic operations etc. I was there in my capacity as CEO of CEPCO. We made a strong pitch, engaging the visions and concepts of the American guests.

In February 2009, Georgia will invest in hosting a medical care delegation from Israel. This economic powerblock clearly is aware of how to drive through the global recession, and meeting today was a significant step on that road.

Depending on how you look at it, Israel devotes up to a third of her resources to defending the country. In the past decade alone, Israel has fought an on-going was against internal Palestinian terror, fought a war in Lebanon, had to prepare for the Iranian threat, and more.

Contrast all that (+ the fall out from the Millenniumeconomic bubble  burst) with the fact that Israel’s economy has grown approx 5% pa on average since 2002. Staggering by most standards. As a mark of its success, in 2008, Israel was accepted into the OECD and the Financial Times upped its recognition of the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange.

Usually, peace leads to prosperity. An explanation for the dichotomy? In May 2007, CNBC  ran a series on the Israeli economy. A leader in formulating world economic opinion, the TV channel concluded that Israel has developed a strong model for economic growth, despite war rather than through peace.

How so? Well, some of Israel’s first high tech giants like Elbit were effectively spun out of the local defence establishment. Since then, if the current global industrial revolution is IT based, Israeli tech is a central part of that recent history. By way of proof, just look at the components in your mobile phone or the microchip enabling you to read this. All this coupled with massively improved fiscal and monetary policies from central government.

Israel’s economic joy of this decade has been led by technology transfer. It has been supported by arms sales (also tech based), real estate and the diamond industry. The inevitable consumer boom was the result of and not the trigger for the success.

So what is the effect on Israel’s economy of Palestinian and Hizbollah terror? I can identify 3 specific sectors.

1) SMEs – when people are called for reserve duty, it is the small enterprises which suffer the most. This was shown in stats after the 2006 Lebanese war, as individuals were called for 30+ days of service.

2) Certain regions of Israel suffer more from Palestinian terror. For example, in the south there is a refugee issue as one third of Sderot’spopulation have fled the constant shellings from Gaza. For example, despite the ceasefire, over 200 rockets and mortars have been launched since November 4th.

3) As resources are devoted to the defense sector, health, education and other social services are pushed way below recognised red lines. Only this week, yet another report was released showing how standards in maths and other subjects have dived again in high schools.

As a parallel, I leave my final word for the Palestinian economy: According to World Bank figures, it grew 5.5% annually from 1968 to 1999, just before  Chairman Arafat launched the second Intifada. In effect, once the Palestinians had been freed from Egyptian and Jordanian rule, Israeli support handed them one of the fastest growing economies internationally for over 2 decades. Today…..well, that’s for another posting.

This Sunday, I met up with the CEO of a large Israeli importer of biscuits, sweets and other yummies. He is an established and notable power house in the economy. His premises offers approx 20 sophisticated docking bays for large distribution trucks – over 500 employees.

Was this guy feeling the downturn? Basically, no. His reasoning took him through a cross section of local peculiarities. But to sum it all up – He knows his market. He is listening hard to what people want.

Now jump forward 24 hours, and I moderated the monthly meeting of the Jerusalem Business Networking Forum. David Nordell presented a fascinating discussion on Business Intelligence. Bottom line – understand what your market wants.

How? Nordell spelt it out. Get close to people either by physically networking or by using Twitter and the like.

Nordell has his own blog, is available of LinkedIn and several other net forums.

Significantly, these two anecdotes confirm a series of one off comments passed on to me in recent weeks from a multitude of business persons in Israel. The path to beating a recession is to offer a quality service. And you start to do that by learning what the market requires and why.

The number of firms in Israel declaring insolvency has risen by 13% in 2008 compared to last year. No surprise there, but I still claim that the economy is continuing to function very capably for the moment.

There are several indicators to that effect.

First, last week, I commented about the positive role of the Tel Aviv stock exchange. The Bank of Israel has reported that overseas players sold US$1.2 billion of Israeli stocks, a prime reason for the fall in the index.

However, foreign direct investment still hit US$444 million, although still 50% down from September 2008. And foreign currency reserves rose strongly in November 2008.

Aaron Katsman, managing editor of a circulated economic newsletter notes that “as far as emerging markets go, Israel has been a big out performer.”

For confirmation, look at what people abroad are saying about the country. Globes newspaper on its website quoted ING Invesment Market executive, Martin-Jan Bakkum. He sees the Tel Aviv index as a strong defensive position.

And he is not alone. Last Wednesday, I attended a private gathering with British health experts, actively looking to invest in Israeli products and services. Two days later, I was contacted by a second British group, which wants to send a delegation to recruit businesses to its shores.

Difficult times, but with a future ahead.

Client Feedback

"Michael transformed the way I think and approach working, and also how to monetize my social media and communal projects."

CEO of digital media company

"Michael helped my high tech company take off."

CEO of clean energy start up

"Michael has been an invaluable resource to me throughout all of the steps of starting up my business."

Art Studio owner

“Working with Michael Horesh is like having root canal treatment, marriage counselling and business coaching all rolled into one, successfully.”

CEO of digital media company
CEO of clean energy start up
Art Studio owner