This week’s press conference in Jerusalem, organised by the Minister of Finance Moshe Kahlon, was an occasion for celebrations and showing off. Israel’s economy has raked up some impressive achievements in the past twelve months.
Kahlon pointed to a 3-leveled triumph. First, tax revenues have continued the trend since 2012, constantly that bit higher than initially predicted. This in turn has meant that the budget deficit has consistently been lower than estimated – about 2.2% as opposed to 2.9%. And therefore, and this is the big news, the ratio of the GDP to the overall national debt is now down to 62.1%.
To explain: This stat is important because it demonstrates a country’s ability to pay back debts. When too high, it is difficult for both a country and corporates to raise money overseas. To give a comparison, when the Greek and Spanish economies were at their lowest point, their debt ratio went soaring over 100%.
How do other leading economies fair today? Britain has clocked up 89% and the USA 105% – remember how Wshington’s finances were gridlocked during part of the Obama administration. The Euro zone average is about 92% – and recall here that in order to join the EU years ago, 60% maximum was a prerequisite.
In parallel news from Jerusalem, the governor of the Bank of Israel, Karnit Flug, cited several positive reasons at her regular monthly briefly to keep the rate of exchange low at 0.1%.
The low rate of inflation reflects the effect of the (shekel’s) appreciation, and possibly structural change and enhanced competition in the economy. Short-term inflation expectations are below the target, while longer term expectations derived from the capital market remain anchored near the midpoint of the target range…..The picture of real economic activity remains positive. …… Foreign trade data indicate a recovery of manufacturing exports, after a prolonged decline since 2014. The picture conveyed by the labor market remains very positive, and the increase in employment and wages was led by the business sector in the past year.
Yes, concerns remain elsewhere. For example, the housing market bubble has yet to be controlled, although there are some signs of hope, finally. Small businesses are still waiting for politicians to release legislation to help them. Powerful unions continue to control the ports. Food prices are absurdly high, due to a series of interested parties exerting control behind the scenes.
I am sure that Mr. Kahlon’s press conference was a political stunt. That said, let us give the Israeli Minister of Finance his due. The Israeli economy has notched up a series of successes in 2016 that others in the OECD can only dream about.