Israel’s second general election for 2019 is scheduled for 17th September. What we know is that:

• It is about which key politician can more successfully ‘dirty down’ their prime opponent in the eyes of the public.
• Policies are rarely mentioned by anyone.
• The PM, Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu is fighting for his personal freedom.
• The result is too close to predict.

Historically, Israeli elections are determined by the question: Which party is seen as the most resolute to resolve the country’s military and diplomatic issues? This is a direct contra to many Western electorates, who are more connected to economic and social policies.

Ostensibly, over the economy, Bibi is seen as having an advantage. He is perceived as having been a great Minister of Finance at the beginning of the millennium, leading the country out of a small recession. Today, the Israeli currency, the shekel, is considered a safe global bet. And despite a concern over a growing budget deficit, Israel’s credit rating remains unchanged.

So where are the “buts”?

Let’s start with that same budget gap, which is growing, sharply. At nearly 4% and rising, you cannot ignore it. The only reason that harsh cuts have not been forced through in the public is because it is election time. They will have to be put off until October or later.

Meanwhile, economic growth is slowing down to around 1.5%. This has been reflected in the unemployment figures, which have risen unexpectedly to 4.1%. Awkward for anybody in power to admit.

And as for the structural anomalies, they exist everywhere. The government has neither the strength nor the interest to haul them in. To take a simple example, look at the olive oil industry.

With some irony, despite history and geographic location, Israel imports much of its olive oil. These imports, like many other food imports are heavily regulated via tariffs. Earlier this year, the tariffs were relaxed. Local manufacturers were forced to drop their prices.

I do not believe that any worker was laid off due to this price war. And now that the tariffs are about to be reinstated? Simple, the local manufacturers can raise their prices. And does the government care?

By the time prices of olive oil will start to climb again, the election will be over.