Israel’s economy in 2016: Ignoring the warning signs?
Earlier this week, the Bank of Israel (BOI) released a report on the outlook for the domestic economy.
There is much to be thankful for. Growth will continue in a similar manner as in the previous two years at around 2.8%. Unemployment is expected to remain low at under 6%, even if the figures only include those actively looking for work. Stability looks to be the name of the game.
In the export market, there is concern. High tech sales are stagnating. Overseas sales in the electronics sector have slowed from an annual growth of 10% to only 5%. And yet, in the defense sector, mainly as a result of the “ISIS pull”, there has been a 120% upturn in European demand for Israeli products.
In parallel, the level of foreign direct investment, particularly in start ups, sees no sign of trailing off. 81 companies pulled in about US$1.0 billion in the first quarter alone of 2016. Encouraging.
And yet, there is a feeling that something is not quite right. The stats seem to be hiding some warning signs. And it was noticeable that two of the three leading Hebrew economic financial newspapers, “The Marker” and “The Calcalist” wrote long summaries, and neither were particularly warming.
“The Calcalist” – Economist in English – observed how the price of housing, particularly for newly marrieds was refusing to budge downwards. Further, for all the economic success, stretching over two decades, Israel still lags behind the OECD average in work productivity. Large sections of the population do not benefit from formal education up to the age of eighteen. And the country still invests comparatively little in infrastructure, including transportation and health.
“The Marker” was more specific. Quoting Karnit Flug, the Governor of the Bank, it wrote: “If we were to close the productivity gap with the average for the OECD, we would be able to raise our standard of living by about a third.” That to me is fairly damning.
And what is worse is that is no apparent plan to achieve that target and thus capture that dramatic improvement for all!
Exports were down last year by over 1%, at a time when the global economy was finally moving ahead. The positive change in the GDP, the main measure of economic growth, was caused by an upsurge in consumer spending (as opposed to investments or exports). That could create an economic bubble. Even the upturn in government revenues was caused by a 30% surge in taxes on real estate – another explanation for spiraling house prices.
And so the list goes on. As for the big white hope, taxed profits from new offshore gas industry, the government’s inept handling of the issue has almost brought overseas investment in the sector to a halt.
Is there a way out? Surely -, a strong government that replaces meaningless one-off populistic statements with solid and fully thought-out long-term measures. However, the current Netanyahu administration, which has the largest numbers of ministers in years, lacks the combined ability to set out such a policy towards renewed growth.
Sad. There again, politicians are amongst the highest paid people in the country.
It is time to wake up…….. right now!
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