After hundred days of campaigning, Israelis go to the polls today. Pundits have no idea who will win. And due to the vagaries of coalition politics, the party with the largest number of Kenesset members may not form the government.

Back in January, I argued that there were “5 economic reasons why Israel may be in for a change”. I wrote:

If you listen to the chatter of the candidates, government and opposition, it is all about the economy; what is and what is not in people’s pockets. It is a matter of ‘perception and feeling about spending power’………(And) when Netanyahu mentioned defense and geopolitical issues, his comments drew strong applause and cheers. When he touched on the economy, the activists in the hall were ominously and erringly quiet.

And this is what happened in the election run up. Netanyahu was perceived as arrogant by many, not understanding that both the lower and middle classes find the cost of living too high. His opponents capitalized on the theme, taking it further to question the current Prime Minister’s overall ability to govern.

And here’s the irony. We read last week that: –

Treasury officials are preparing bullish new estimates for economic growth this year as data coming in for the final part of 2014 and early 2015 show growth rebounding at a faster pace than anyone predicted ……Finance Ministry officials said they are now expecting Israel’s gross domestic product to expand 3.5% this year. That would mean a much faster pace of growth than the 2.8% officials were talking about last summer when they provided the first estimate ahead of the 2015 budget.

So the Israeli economy is booming. The problem for Netanyahu is that either not enough people believe it – feel the positive change – or the benefits are restricted to the better off.

Those economic headlines that hit the newspapers refer to factories laying off hundreds of workers in the south of the country, where the economy is notoriously weaker. Deflation is so severe that the price index dropped 0.7% in February. In a recent poll, barely 13% felt that the country’s overall economic position had improved during the life of the outgoing government. On a personal level, the figure was slightly higher at 21%.

I have maintained and continue to argue that Israel’s economy is dynamic and sound. There are key structural problems, such as the restrictive practices of the unions in key sectors like the ports or the power of vested interests to keep the prices of basic foods higher than necessary. That said, Israel’s stock market is at a record high, the currency is strong and official unemployment levels remain low at under 6%.

However, on St Patrick’s Day, Israelis are going to the polling booths to pass their verdict. Will encouraging financial stats, wrapped in a seductive green of the day, be enough to return Netanyahu to his throne? Or will the masses reject his lists of promises, which have yet to be converted into action items, and take a  chance on something new?