3 encouraging indicators from the Israeli economy
At a time when Israeli politicians have launched themselves into an unwanted general election, the local economy is showing signs of great resilience. And that is the reason that yesterday the Bank of Israel left its rate of interest unchanged at 0.25%.
What are the telltale signs?
The shekel has weakened 13 percent against the dollar since the summer rate cuts, helping exports that drive economic expansion. The improved climate has coincided with a decline in unemployment to 5.6 percent, its lowest level since at least 2012………….(And) growth will accelerate to 3.2 percent in 2015 before slowing to 3 percent in 2016…….
I can add to that three other indicators
First, the economy is gradually overcoming the setback of the summer, when the unexpected war with Gaza thumped large sectors of society. For example, it is estimated that the economy in the south of the country, highly dependent of the tourist season, took at 35% hit.
Now, there is some form of rebound in play. By way of anecdotal evidence, I know that many of my clients are engaged in heavy advertising, which is very unusual considering that we are entering the ‘low sales months of winter’. They are seeing an unseasonal spike in sales.
Second, Israel’s idiosyncratic election campaign could actually be helping the economy. It is not just that many of the parties have identified social issues as the Achilles heel of the outgoing government. As I have mentioned previously, new public expenditure policies are frozen until the next government is installed, probably not until may 2015. The attorney-general has been very clear that he will clamp down on ‘election-economics’. Thus, there is little scope for overspending. Overseas investors will be pleased.
Third, and many most important, the Israeli public is far more sophisticated in the past two decades. It now longer waits for politicians to make decisions. A recent blog considered “five reasons why Israeli start ups are so successful“. To sum up: It is all about the old Ben Gurion addage, the country’s first Prime Minister. Everything is impossible until you have tried to change the situation.
Israelis do not wait around for things to happen, but try to initiate new things. It is in that sort of environment when economies and societies are likely to move ahead, and beyond the expected norm.
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