The real story of the Israeli economy
To the outsider, Israel’s economy looks wobbly. After nearly a decade when the average annual GDP growth was well over 3%, there appears to be a feeling of uncertainty.
Take the issue of the new-found offshore gas reserves. Despite committees and Parliamentary debates, the government has yet to conclude how much is permitted to be exported to Cyprus and elsewhere. That is poor decision-making at the very top.
And there is the fiasco over choosing a new governor of the central bank. Jacob Frenkel, a man who possesses all the right professional credentials, was chosen. It has since emerged that he did not disclose an unfortunate private issue and thus was forced to chuck in the nomination. Next up was Leo Leiderman, a brilliant economist, but his nomination was brought down via rumour mongering. And it is said that an excellent female candidate is unlikely to be picked, because some years ago she wrote an analysis, which was not so friendly towards the current Prime Minister. All rather pathetic.
There has been some initial fear that all this uncertainty would lead to speculation against the Israeli shekel in the currency markets. That is a possibility. However, there is another side to the economy, which is far more positive and encouraging, and is being ignored.
First, the budget deficit finally seems to be under control. For over a year, it had been rising progressively from 3% to 4.6% of GDP. Now, “the treasury said higher-than-expected tax revenues over the last few months and lower-than-planned spending had reduced the 12-month-trailing budget deficit to just 3.79% of gross domestic product at the end of July.”
Almost at the same time, the Bank of Israel released information that the foreign currency reserves stood at an all time high. Not exactly the sign of an economy in trouble.
What next? Very simple. The people are clearly doing their bit to make sure that the economy is stable. It is time for the politicians to learn how to govern.
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