Israel and the credit crunch – Mary Poppins ain’t here yet
Two months ago, I heard a lecture by Stanley Fisher, Governor of the Bank of Israel and who possesses a very impressive cv in nternational banking. He pointed out that over 5 years the Israeli economy had grown around 30%, despite wars and diplomatic concerns. unemployment was at a historical low. Debt was closing on European levels, and so the list went on.
Fisher was later asked how the coming world recession would impinge on Israel. For sure, the economy which has thrived due to direct foreign investment will suffer. Exports will take a knock. But from there on, providing government and individual keeps cool, it will not be too bad.
Right or wrong?
It’s Wednesday 8th October. As I write, Gordon Brown is about to announce a partial nationalisation of British banks. Yesterday, Wall Street dropped another 5%. Stock markets in Egypt and in Saudi Arabia fell 16% and 8% respectively.
As for the Israeli market, a 3.9% bounce upwards. Yup, the country that has learnt to thrive without a peaceful background bucked logic once again.
And yet the resons are clear. Sure, a 0.5% surprise reduction in interest rates helped. The fundamentals are good. The country does not possess a mortgage system as in America. The banks were revamped decades ago, with few serious exposures to the mayhem overseas. The stock market was upgraded this year on the FT index.
It will be a brave person to predict what will happen tomorrow, but the signs are positive for the long term.
Meanwhile, back in England, it is almost a hundred years ago to the day when Mary Poppins landed and her scriptwriters threatened government ownership of the banks. A spoonful of sugar for all international investors?
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