Afternoon Tea in Jerusalem Blog

In addition to my work as a business coach, one of my interests is blogging about life in Israel. This is a country full of contrasts – over eight million citizens living in an area the size of Wales. You can see snow and the lowest place on the globe in the same day. Although surrounded by geopolitical extremes, Israel has achieved a decade of high economic growth. My work brings me in contact with an array of new companies, exciting technologies and dynamic characters. Sitting back with a relaxing cup of strong tea (with milk), you realise just how much there is to appreciate in the Holyland. Large or small operations, private sector or non profit, my clients provide experiences from which others can learn and benefit.

It has been a notably busy week for Israel’s Prime Minister, as he stitches together yet another coalition government. And while this predictable political farce is played out in Jerusalem, the economy is taking yet another hit.

I wrote last week that “proactive government financial initiatives are sorely lacking“. We now know that there has been a 55% increase in requests for bankruptcy proceedings over the past three years. To summarise a report from Bloomberg, Israel seems to be “catching up at falling behind“. Not very complementary.

You can blame the global economy. Others shout that the shekel is considerably over valued. All very true to some extent. However you spin it, even Moody’s is hinting that it may be time to lower Israel’s credit rating.

The below-par growth outcomes add uncertainty to the authorities’ 2.8% growth assumption and in turn the 2.9% of GDP fiscal deficit target for this year. In turn, a worse fiscal outcome would imperil the continued improvement in the government’s debt metrics.

And that could mean that it will be more expensive for the Finance Ministry in Jerusalem to raise money on the world’s financial markets. That impacts on everyone. Ouch!

So, quarterly growth for early 2016 came in at 0.8%. Exports slightly decreased in the same period. Production has dropped off by over 10%, even though unemployment at 4.9% has not seen such a low level since 1983. And the housing market, one of the core bench-markers for Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon, has seen prices rises of 8% – double the rate of the previous 12 months.

And what is the Prime Minister Netanyahu doing about all of this? The financial newspaper Globes believes that he is avoiding core financial issues. Ha’aretz newspaper sees the successes of the past going up in smoke, while the Emperor is fiddling around. Not very encouraging.

The cheerful news for the Prime Minister is that with the new coalition deal, his job is safe for the new few months if not next few years. As for the rest of us………….

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